I believe that the old jeweler is another incarnation of our old friend Smokey.

Think about it...........memory analysis. The choosing of a key point in his life, his non-proposal to Penny. Its similar to Kate's horse, Jack's father, dead Boone, etc.

Eko's memories were analyzed by Smokey. Here it is taken one step further........not only are his memories catalogued, but when he tries to deviate he is corrected. And we are told if he does deviate..........."every single one of us is dead".

WHO IS US?????

Human beings.

US=The entire human race.

I believe she was real and that she is not the Smokmeister

was that her talking to jack in the preview for next week?


***MOD edit to add spoiler fonts***

Interesting thought that she could be "the voice of the island." I've always had trouble believing that if the EM overload wasn't stopped that the entire world would be destroyed, although I think Carlton once said that was the case.

It would be more interesting if by saying "us" she was identifying herself as someone on the island. I guess Smokey would fill the bill.

Cardie

was that her talking to jack in the preview for next week?

That's what I thought at first, but I think it may be a different person.

When she said I assumed the "we" was everyone on the island- seeing as she had a lot of knowledge about the island. could the electromagnietic energy have given others (pun intended) future/time problems also? our lostaways have only been there a little while, so maybe prolonged exposure gives you a case of "the shining"?

If you are discussing the preview...you MUST use spoiler fonts...

When I was watching th epi I had this sneaking suspicion that the woman was smokey. If she really was in Desmonds past who would she be some random psychic person who he just happened to bump into, why didn't Des remember her.

Another possibility that the old jeweler is Smokey inspired............we still don't know how, physically how, Desmond went from an imploded hatch to lying naked in the jungle on some palm fronds.

What power or entity has the ability to pull this off?

I can only think of one in terms of the plot presented.

I know that his nakedness was the main argument for time-travelling. That would mean he went back in time - body and all. But why did he leave his beard behind then? :21:

Also, where was his current-time ego? He landed right in his body? I'm all confused :wacko:

So I think, the whole thing was the island's (smokey's) scheme to convince him that there's nothing he can do to change things.

It's so Wizard of Oz! Red slippers and everything! :21:

She is "the man behind the curtain", aka The Wizard.

Us? Why "us" indeed? Why not mankind, why not people? If she is the island, smokie or such, then this means that "it" has a definite personality. Maybe even a "man behind the curtain" to run the whole thing...

Maybe she was smokey or an illusion created by smokey. And possibly Desmond was just unconcious and was having a flashback/dream. In his dream he tried to edit the past, which is impossible because he is not actually in the past. But smokey entered his dream to send him a message. However, somehow his flashback either passed his present state allowing him to flashback to the future or when smokey entered his mind desmond kind of got a glimpse of what smokey could see or kind of absorbed an ability which was maybe not intended.

Or possibly, smokey just wanted Desmond to think that everything has an intended fate and that eventually no matter how hard you try, what is meant to be will be. Smokey wants him to think this because smokey knows that after turning the key, he will see the future and this could be bad for the island. It is a way to suppress desmond from acting on his visions(which obviously he is acting on them now, but may give up)

I dont know, just a thought.

Oh, I think by "Us", she meant everyone with in plane crashing proximity to the island.

Us? Why "us" indeed? Why not mankind, why not people? If she is the island, smokie or such, then this means that "it" has a definite personality. Maybe even a "man behind the curtain" to run the whole thing...

"Us" is an interesting thing to say, she could just mean "us" as in "we people who are involved in this time travel project."

I'd hypothesized earlier that there are certain people in the "real world" who are.... "ushers" or "guides" of some sort, influencing the action. I think that's what Mrs Hawking is -- she was sent back to influence this (and perhaps other events). Another user/guide/"one of us" would be Libby.

Perhaps if the timeline is broken all the travelers are killed / cease to be, not necessarily all of mankind.

we still don't know how, physically how, Desmond went from an imploded hatch to lying naked in the jungle on some palm fronds.

What power or entity has the ability to pull this off?

I can only think of one in terms of the plot presented.

Obviously you are referring to me.

I believe that the old jeweler is another incarnation of our old friend Smokey.
That is the first thing I thought of after seeing her actions and behavior.

seems to me that it was a lucid dream that was being watched by our friend smokey. then once he tried to change it, he wasn't allowed to.

Another possibility that the old jeweler is Smokey inspired............we still don't know how, physically how, Desmond went from an imploded hatch to lying naked in the jungle on some palm fronds.

What power or entity on the island has the ability to pull this off?

I can only think of one - in terms of the plot presented thus far.Forgive me if this "coincidence" has already been pointed out, but Fionnula Flanagan, the actress that played the jeweler, played a ghost in the Nicole Kidman suspense flick The Others.

Can't shake the line from the Hatch map that said: "It's a bad plan and cannot be changed."

I don't think Smokey is the force here. I do think that Smokey is a tool or a manifestation of another larger force/entity. In another thread I wrote that I didn't think that Smokey creates the visions, because sometime Smokey (as smoke) attacks or is nearby during visions - like Eko - but sometimes he is totally absent - like Jack's dad, or the horse, or Hurley's friend. I think some how the island, through either intentional sentient means, or perhaps as a byproduct of something paranormal like electromagnetic fields, or radiation or something, makes people have hallucinations and creates other mind tricks. To what point, I don't know, but I don't think Smokey is the underlying force that does it all. I think it is a piece of the puzzle, but not the picture.

You beat me to it, but I immediately thought of Yemi, and how he tried to manipulate Eko into turning the key. Yemi starts us down the path of "The Island fighting for it's survival" motif that has lapsed below most peoples memories.

I truly believe the flashbacks, the forward flashes are all directly drawn from smokey. Smokey is an extension of the island, and the island want's to survive.

I totally agree, Smokey is behind the whole thing. No powers, just Smokey using Dez as a conduit.

Can't shake the line from the Hatch map that said: "It's a bad plan and cannot be changed."

The quote is "Malum consilium quod mutari non potest" - "It is a bad plan that cannot be changed." It means that if your plan can only happen one way and one way alone, it's bad.

Still rather fitting with the fate vs. free will arguement.

Now just hear me out on this one, but Im thinking that the smoke monster has manifested itself as the ring lady in Desmond's dream/flashback/wormhole travel/whatever. Perhaps old smokey pulled Desmond out of the hatch before anything happened, and we have a hypnosis situation going on....

Ding ding ding! We have a winner!

I totally agree. I think this wa a crucial episode, along with the episode in which Eko dies. here's my theory...

One of Dharma's projects was in Artificial Intelligence. Somewhere on the island is a highly sophisticated computer manipulating the island's electromagnetic anomaly. The psychological experiments on the island were means by which the residents studied human nature in order to better program the machine's articial intelligence.

This machine has several abilities.
It can read thoughts
It can magnetically manipulate particulates in the air (ala Smoky, possibly the polar bear)
It can induce hallucinations (ala Kate's white horse, Hurley's Dave, Jack's Dad, Yemi, and Des' flashbacks).
It can send messages (whispers, Locke's inspirations, etc.)
It can magnetically affect metallic objects
It can even perform some medical miracles (Rose's cancer, Locke's legs, Jin's fertility)About three years ago, something happened ("an incident"). The AI "awoke." The Others tried to shut it down. The AI fought back and gained independence. now the AI hates the Others. It cut off the Others from the Hatch. It isolated Kelvin Inman and his partner (who ends up committing suicide).

The AI is struggling with its programming (don't know yet what that is). This is appearing in the guise of a debate about free will. What does it mean to be a sentient machine? Aren't we all sentient machines?

The AI also wants to know about human nature in order to better understand its own state. But it does not trust the Others and it doesn't know anybody else on the island. (FOr a reason why it couldn't use Danielle, see below.) When Desmond crashes on the island, Kelvin finds him before the AI does. Once inside the Hatch, they are beyond the AI's reach.

The AI attempts to pull in other people. In its first attempt, it grabs Yemi's plane, but it cannot control the descent and everyone dies in the crash.

When Desmond forgets to push the button, the AI has a better ability to control its powers at a distance. It grabs flight 815. Although it ends up tearing the plane in two, it manages to save many of the passengers.

Now it probes the passengers, weighing the concepts of free will, programming, destiny and fate.

My other thought is that the island has been hastily built as a prison to keep the AI contained. If the AI gets out, it could conceivably go Terminator on us. Why are the hatches abandoned? Because all the Others were pulled back to the second island. The second island could serve as an outlet to the rest of the world.

When the hatch self-destructed, there was a chance the AI could get free. My guess is that if Desmond hadn't flipped the failsafe (which is effectively a lockdown on both islands), that there was a second failsafe on the the second island that the Others would have flipped.

Now, Smoky is still struggling with its nascent consciousness. The Others are trying to shut Smoky down, but are now themselves isolated from the world. They can't tell Flight 815 because Smoky can read the castaways' minds. (It's also why Alex isn't allowed to live with the castaways... she knows more than the Others want Smoky to learn.)

Now, here's the catch. After Desmond throws the failsafe, something remarkable happens. Desmond taps directly into Smoky. Smoky of course goes on one of its patented psychic journeys into the castaways' flashbacks. This time, it's Desmond. It believes Desmond, like it, is bound to it's programming. It tests that with Desmond.

But when the flashback ends, they are still linked. Desmond isn't reading the future. It's reading Smoky's artificial brain.

So when Desmond sees Locke's speech, it's because Smoky plans to inspire Locke's speech. It wants Kate, Jack and Sawyer rescued so it can read their monds and learn more abotu what the Others have planned.

When Desmond sees Charlie getting killed, it's because Smoky plans to kill Charlie. In my opinion (and I've seen others hypothesize this), Smoky wants Aaron because he's a baby. (I think that Smoky "spoke" to Walt on more than one ocassion.) Perhaps Smoky wants to inhabit him. Perhaps Smoky wants to manipulate the blank slate of Aaron's mind. That's why the Others are so insistent on taking all the children. And Charlie's watchdog attitude has been preventing Smoky from getting to Aaron.

Now, if Smoky hates the Others so much, why did it allow Ethan and Ben to infiltrate them. Well, I think Ethan mostly showed up when Smoky was busy. He slipped through the defense. As for Ben, he arrived with Danielle, who is as batty as a fruitcake. I believe that Danielle's madness creates a sort of static for Smoky's telepathy. Ben allowed himself to be captured by Danielle and then manipulated her into bringing him to Sayid just so she could slip him past Smoky.

Unanswered questions...
After Michael frees him, how did Ben get back to the Others past Smoky?
Why do the Others recruit a fertility doctor (could infertility be a side effect of the electromagnetic field)?
Why were these specific people on the plane? Did someone know Smoky was going to grab Flight 815?
What do Hurley's numbers have to do with it? Perhaps that mathematic sequence is some sort of key to the AI? Perhaps... perhaps the AI did at some point escape into the real world, in a more primitive form, manifesting as these numbers as it tries to manipulate stuff.
Who was on the island before the others? (Ie, the four-toed statue and the origin of the Black Rock)
What's the deal with all the paranormal powers off the island? (Walt summoning birds, the numbers, Claire's psychic)

Anyway, that's my current working theory.

I'm leaning towards this idea as well, at this point I think it's a reasonable theory to argue.
Des' FB, was similar to the dreams and visions people have had.

Intense! I'll buy into this theory as well ... still processing this epi and maybe I'll have some useful feedback later. But good call.

I guess I'm the only one who thinks that the Smoke Monster is just that....a monster. I think Eko did just as Desmond did and everyone else whose had a near-death experience - they see their life flash before them. I don't think the SM can "manifest" itself to be anything but violent smoke. Eko was hallucinating just like Hurley, Jack, Sawyer, Kate and everyone else has. I do think the island has a way of making you "see" stuff from your past, but I just don't think the SM has anything to do with it.

I dig your theory Marksman. If we hadn't seen Ben's back spread open, I might have thought that your AI was in fact, Ben himself. On that thought, perhaps the AI still is Ben, but whatever "houses/runs" the AI is maybe a microchip and is implanted in Ben? "that's my crackpot theory and I'm stickin' to it!"

I guess I'm the only one who thinks that the Smoke Monster is just that....a monster. I think Eko did just as Desmond did and everyone else whose had a near-death experience - they see their life flash before them. I don't think the SM can "manifest" itself to be anything but violent smoke. Eko was hallucinating just like Hurley, Jack, Sawyer, Kate and everyone else has. I do think the island has a way of making you "see" stuff from your past, but I just don't think the SM has anything to do with it.

Damon and Carlton said out right that the island manifests itself into Dave, Christian and Yemi, in the latest clips show Lost survivor guide

Humm...

If the others dont have access to the outside world, how come they could have a video of the World Series? How did they have so much information about Jack's life? And why did Ben told to Juliet (and Michael and Walt) that they could go back to the outside world (of course, for that last point we don't know if these people will leave the Island.

Nice theory though

They lost contact (supposedly) AFTER the failsafe was turned, NOT before hand, so they very well could have had that video and the info on Jack before that happened.

i'm really beginning to believe that the smoke monster manifested itself as the jewelry store lady....now as to whether its AI and is controlling itself is another question...

one guess is that patchy may be controlling smokey...think about it...he saw people in the pearl, turned off the camera, and smokey shows up outside the pearl where only eko is. so whats to say that he saw what was going on in the swan hatch(wherever the button was) and so he sent smokey and nabbed desmond out of there.

even if smokey isnt being controlled by patchy, i think its being controlled by somebody...not AI. just my two cents

Damon and Carlton said out right that the island manifests itself into Dave, Christian and Yemi, in the latest clips show Lost survivor guide

Thanks for the inside info. I'll have a differerent perspective from here on out.

I like the theory by marksman for a few reasons:

1. Practicality:
- Yes, these producers are great, but initially, they might have needed an idea simple like the one marksman has given us. It seems like something that J.J. Abrams would write, as he did co-create the show (just looking at his past works like M:I:III and Alias, it seems very plausible)
2. It makes sense:
- It really does all fit, for the most part. It is much easier to explain than time rifts or so on, and the clues about time travel and stuff like that (like from "Not in Portland").

Then again, clues from the producers (Lindelof, specifically, the comments about "you think their in the same time" and Mittleos, which he says is an anagram for "Lost time"). The clues kind of make me want to suspect that something else might be going on.

But then again, there could be a combo of the time-rifting and the Smokey theory.

This all comes back to the Stephen Hawking reference and black holes. The main thing about black holes is having a gravitational pull so strong that not even light can escape. Nothing is faster than light, so what you have is a series of events not visible by a distant observer. Seeing as how electromagnetic energy can effect light rays, I find it plausible that the hatch implosion caused a rift in space/time. I wont get technical, but it has to do with "naked singularities" and the possibility(theoretically at least) that a wormhole formed.

As for the time rift, the device used to imprison Smoky might have a time distortion effect, or it could be another side effect of the natural intense electromagnetic field of the island (along with infertility). Personally, I think the whole time rift thing is something the producers toy with to explain actors aging. I hope they drop the idea.

Another medical procedure Smoky may have performed... ending Jin's infertility. (In other words, though the EM radiation makes people infertile, Smoky knows how to protect people from it, possibly even repair it and other forms of infertility.)

Also, Smoky may be controlled by a person. I would imagine the control is imperfect, at best. Like trying to talk to someone over a long tube. I personally like the AI angle, as it explains Dharma's penchant for bizarre and convoluted psychological tests. Especially as the tests appear designed to understand people's behavior when observing others (which may have been somthing Smoky was originally designed to do).

Hello everyone, this is my first post so be nice! :)

Marksman, I think your theory is well thought out - thank you for being so coherent. I also think it is plausible considering that TPTB have implied that everything that happens has an actual (which I read as non-supernatural) explanation... however crazy that actual explanation might be!

The one thing that is nagging me is that a few of the "hallucinations" of the characters have been, for lack of a better word, "real." Kate walked right up to the black horse she saw and touched it. Hurley picked up Dave's slipper and held it. I'm not sure what that means... thoughts? Is the AI in your theory a shapeshifter, able to manifest itself as whatever/whomever it wants whenever it wants? Because that opens a whoooooole big can of worms...

Maybe we can add this to your list of unanswered questions. :)

Hello everyone, this is my first post so be nice! :)
Welcome!!!

Marksman, I think your theory is well thought out - thank you for being so coherent.
Flattery will get you everywhere!

The one thing that is nagging me is that a few of the "hallucinations" of the characters have been, for lack of a better word, "real." Kate walked right up to the black horse she saw and touched it. Hurley picked up Dave's slipper and held it. I'm not sure what that means... thoughts? Is the AI in your theory a shapeshifter, able to manifest itself as whatever/whomever it wants whenever it wants?
I have a few theories about this.


Manifestation. The AI can manifest as stuff it pulls from people's thoughts. This could include the polar bears (drawn from Walt and Hurley, who were reading the comic book with the polar bear), the horse (drawn from Kate), Yemi (drawn from Eko) and the slipper (drawn from Hurley). This does make the AI very powerful, but what the heck!
Hallucination. The manifestations are just hallucinations with a tactile component. So far, none of the hallucinations have really left objective evidence behind of their existence. So did Kate and Sawyer touch a horse, or did they think they touched a horse? In this version, the polar bears are real, rather than manifestations.


I don't think this needs to go on unanswered questions. But very astute question, Amy! It took me awhile to figure those out.

dang it marksman....i guess i should have written more on my own thread to start it out with....but thanks marksman for picking it up and running with it....all the while stealing my glory. LOL :biggrin: You know, they do say that great minds think alike.

Yes, and apparently, so do we!:o
100%
Seriously, thanks for the kind words! Apparently your post triggered by own Desmondic flashback!

(Look, I created a word!)

I believe that the old jeweler is another incarnation of our old friend Smokey.

Think about it...........memory analysis. The choosing of a key point in his life, his non-proposal to Penny. Its similar to Kate's horse, Jack's father, dead Boone, etc.

Eko's memories were analyzed by Smokey. Here it is taken one step further........not only are his memories catalogued, but when he tries to deviate he is corrected. And we are told if he does deviate..........."every single one of us is dead".

WHO IS US?????
PersonallyI LOVED Ms. Hawking as a character.
She was LOST's Oracle.

It's probably a coincidence but in Fionnula Flanagan's (Ms. Hawking) filmography (on imdb) there's this:

The Others (2001) .... Mrs. Bertha Mills

You have to admit it's a weird coincidence.

Great thread, this is the theory I am moreso leaning towards rather than outright time travel. These island manifestations are manipulating the survivors, but to what end is still unknown. Lets see, some thoughts off the top of my head:

Claire: While pregnant has dreams in which someone is trying to hurt her baby. Weird dream where Locke has the white and black stones for eyes. Claire had contact with a psychic who gave her the tickets for flight 815. He may have had the same abilities that Desmond has now.

Locke: Season 1 he seemed to be taking direction from the Island. He was the first to see "the eye of the island, and it was beautiful". His visions lead him to the crashed beachcraft and the death of Boone. "I've done everything you wanted me to do, so WHY DID YOU DO THIS---TO ME!?" This year, during his vision quest he was directed by Boone, who seems similar to Yemi and Ms. Hawking.

Jack: Saw visions of his father in the jungle early in season 1, even though his dad was dead. The visions almost caused him to die by falling off a cliff, and eventually lead him to the caves where they found fresh water and the Adam and Eve skeletons.

Charlie: Had all kinds of weird visions in the season 2 episode "Fire + Water" that told him to "Save the baby". This prompted Charlie to try to get the baby baptized.

Hurley: Saw visions of his old hallucination Dave in the jungle. On the island, Dave wanted Hurley to jump off a cliff to his death, and told Hurley that all of the stuff that Hurley had been experiencing was a dream.

Eko: Had visions that told him of the "?" hatch, which he and Locke discovered. Yemi, Eko's dead brother, was the one trying to direct Eko's actions. Yemi told Eko that he had to push the button. Button doesn't get pushed, hatch implodes, season 3 Yemi is PISSED. Smokey stalks Eko through the jungle. Yemi appears to Eko and tells him to confess. After Eko does not give Yemi the response he was looking for, Yemi says in disgust, "You speak to me as if I were your brother." Eko demands to know who he is, and chases notYemi through the jungle, until he comes face to face with the Smoke monster, which kills Eko. Eko's last words to Locke before he dies are "You're next" (whether he means all of the survivors or just Locke is ambiguous at this point. Locke interprets it as "We're next" but we do not actually hear Eko's words. It is worth noting that Eko also had contact with Claire's psychic, who described himself as a fraud.

Desmond: Has a dream(?) after turning the failsafe key that he is reliving his past. He has flashes of his life on the island during this dream, but cannot quite remember everything about it. Has a run-in with Ms. Hawking, who breaks character at the jewelry store and tries to convince Desmond that it is impossible to change fate.


Like CiscoKid said in post #14, something seems to want Desmond to believe that he cannot change fate. Why is this? Does this entity or entities seem to have a specific path that it does not want disturbed?





It's probably a coincidence but in Fionnula Flanagan's (Ms. Hawking) filmography (on imdb) there's this:

The Others (2001) .... Mrs. Bertha Mills

You have to admit it's a weird coincidence.

Haha, I watched The Others with a friend a few years ago. I recognize her now!

Excellent points, sickotriz!!

Excellent points, sickotriz!!

Thanks

Wait, this would make sense. Remember when Eko encountered Smokey in the jungle with Charlie, and his life flashed before his eyes??? We only saw bits and pieces in the smoke, but we don't really know how Eko viewed it. Suppose what he saw was the same thing as Desmond? His past life flashing before his eyes, but the ability to interact with it? Do we know for a fact Eko didn't interact with his vision of Smokey? Or Locke for that matter? Maybe when Locke saw Smokey, he saw how his life could have been, had he made different choices, and thats why he thought it was beautiful. If the Swan hatch had anything at all to do with Smokey, maybe Desmond encountered it and doesnt even know it. BTW, Des waking up in the jungle after the implosion was quite the same as our first shot of Jack on the island, wasn't it? ;)

These theories are really interesting, I would only remind us all that the average person watching Lost on the sofa eating popcorn and drooling on themselves is not going to be able to follow all this.

While we love to dissect every moment of every episode, the writers must take into consideration that the average 90 IQ needs to get this show too, so I try not to let myself get too carried away. Do we really think the average tv viewer is familiar with S. Hawking, Nabukov, or even Wonderwall??

Do we really think that the average lemming will be albe to grasp AI, time-travelling, smoke-controlled ring ladies popping thru the time-space continuum?? I don't know.

Unfortunately this is a prime time tv show, sometimes a polar bear is just a polar bear....

Wait, this would make sense. Remember when Eko encountered Smokey in the jungle with Charlie, and his life flashed before his eyes??? We only saw bits and pieces in the smoke, but we don't really know how Eko viewed it. Suppose what he saw was the same thing as Desmond? His past life flashing before his eyes, but the ability to interact with it? Do we know for a fact Eko didn't interact with his vision of Smokey? Or Locke for that matter? Maybe when Locke saw Smokey, he saw how his life could have been, had he made different choices, and thats why he thought it was beautiful. If the Swan hatch had anything at all to do with Smokey, maybe Desmond encountered it and doesnt even know it. BTW, Des waking up in the jungle after the implosion was quite the same as our first shot of Jack on the island, wasn't it? ;)


True true. Also, Eko looked into the smoke monster, but remember when Locke did? He said it was beautiful. I dont remember if he got pulled into the ground or not, but I dont think he did. Any thoughts on Locke looking at smokey?

Thing is, Desmond physically travelling back in time in no way explains his ability to predict the future. It POINTS at how this might be occurring (he could travel back from another future point), but it doesnt explain it. I think this is opens up too much complexity.. he then has to be involved in multiple time loops which would blow most ppls minds.

I favour memory / flashback / hallucination, with another explanation for his prescient ability. In which case, I think the smoke monster (or whatever else caused the other hallucinations) being the cause here. Not my theory, but something I read elsewhere I think, but imo, desmond has somehow acquired an understanding of the numbers, and the whole 'numbers +equation describing the future' idea.

But if someone travels back to the past of something they have already experienced, then they can correctly predict the coming events because they have already experienced them.

If a monster scans your memories (which we know it does ala Eko and the pictures in the monster) and then the smokey uses it to manipulate your thoughts and memories, thus ultimately manipulating your actions. Perhaps smokey makes up the future? Makes the Losties think that they know the future. It's a con.... Smokey is trying to manipulate them to do things. When it doesn't go his way he get's pissed off. Now I'm not saying smokie is a monster, AI or controlled by the others. I don't know what he is. BUT I do know that if you travelled in the past there would not be a woman who mysteriously broke character and yelled at you. lol. She doesn't want Desmond to make up his own memories. Smokey wants him to think he knows the future...reality is Desmond only knows what Smokey is telling him. I think thats why we saw a glimpse of the Karl brainwashing. They are preparing us. Sure the average viewer may not get it - but they will when they walk them through all the steps.

These theories are really interesting, I would only remind us all that the average person watching Lost on the sofa eating popcorn and drooling on themselves is not going to be able to follow all this.
If it were to be explaine d over several episodes? I think they could absolutely follow this.

It just needs to be brought out in a series of surprising revelations...

1) Introduce the idea of machines with artifical intelligence
2) Introduce the idea that Smoky doesn't like the Others
3) Introduce the idea that the Others were prevented from getting to the hatch by Smoky
4) Reveal that Smoky was an AI.

5) Introduce the idea that machines can read minds
6) Introduce the idea that this technology can be used to cause hallucinations.
7) Reveal that the various hallucinations on the island are caused by this technology

8) Desmond discovers he isn't seeing the future -- he's reading the island's mind.

Note that I reject the idea of time travel in thsi show. I think that's entirely in the imagination fo the show's fans.