A Boeing 777 has a capacity of 305-328 (http://www.geocities.com/khlim777_my/asb777techspecs.htm), not counting crew.

Every seat on 815 should have been occupied.
Yet every interior plane shot shows the Losties' flight was only 1/2 full.

Conclusion: The original 325 passengers for flight 815 were divided into 2 groups, routed to 2 different planes.

Continuity error: the Losties should have figured this out, they have the manifest. DUH.

Actually, I think I just read that there was going to be a continuity error in this episode that would upset people. Ausiello maybe? Anyway, this is probably it.

jennylee, that was my thought, too. Ausiello's pretty sharp, I'd be interesting in finding out if it's this or something else.

Way back when we had a spoiler that this epi would be titled 324 Confirmed Dead, I did a lot of research on the capacity, and also flipped through all the S1 screencaps of the flight, just in case my math was wrong. It wasn't.

If there were shenanigans with the passengers being put onto two planes--an old theory of mine, btw--then I'm sure the manifests were both faked too.

Cardie

Considering they lied about the plane being found in the first place, would it be that far-fetched for them to lie about the number of passengers aboard the flight? I just dont see the count as a big deal, its more of a big deal that they planted a decoy plane in the first place. :twocents:

Cardie, both manifests weren't faked.
The media and official reports showed all 324 passengers.
That total would have been based upon the manifest.

They might retro the craphole plane manifest to be a fake, but it's a gaffe, a forgivable one, but still a gaffe.

Diablo, the count's a big deal because it confirms Lapidus' story that there were two planes, and further - it vindicates those of us who have been pushing a 2-plane theory since way back when!

This may not be gospel...but it disagrees with your conclusion...

http://www.lostpedia.com/wiki/Flight_815

I love the theory, lostmio! That would explain the different pilot in the decoy plane.

Cardie, both manifests weren't faked.
The media and official reports showed all 324 passengers.
That total would have been based upon the manifest.



The manifest in the hands of Oceanic would have been genuine and showed 324 on board. But, going by what you yourself suggested, if they divided up the passengers after boarding as part of some conspiracy, then the idea that they put modified manifests onboard each of the planes to cover their rears isn't that huge of a retcon. Now, if the decoy was planted (and conceived of) only after the crash and everyone booked on 815 was on the plane that crashed on the island, then it's a continuity error.

Cardie

Pink, Lostpedia will be changing that soon. They used spoiler info to get the 324 number and haven't yet remembered the flight caps and done the math...

Cardie, I don't follow you, but two different manifests would defeat their purpose.
To the world at large, it's important to maintain the illusion that all 324 passengers, on one plane and one manifest, perished.
If you're saying they created a separate manifest for craphole, just in case one of the survivors found and checked it, well - oookay, I can go there. But imo it was one of those bloopers that happen in any show, much less one as complex as this..

Diablo, the count's a big deal because it confirms Lapidus' story that there were two planes, and further - it vindicates those of us who have been pushing a 2-plane theory since way back when!


Missing something I think? Lapidus? I do remember the two plane theory way back, but are you saying that the plane found near Bali is in fact a second flight 815 that actually did crash, and not a decoy? :confused: Sorry, Im a bit slow tonight...just trying to clarify.. :)

I'm not lostmio, but the two-plane theory has it that certain folks booked on 815 were routed to the island while others were put on another plane that was sabotaged so it would crash far from the island.

Cardie

I would buy that theory more than I would someone crashing a second plane complete with bodies after the fact to cover their tracts.

Diablo, obviously there were enough bodies found with the Sudan Trench plane to convince everyone that all aboard had perished.

So that plane could not have been a decoy, ie a fake plane with only one body (the pilot) aboard.
There were enough bodies to cause the media and everyone to believe all scheduled on the flight were accounted for.
Half would do nicely.
It would be presumed that others had fallen or met some other gruesome end.

Karri, these are bad folks. We know a substantial number of folks were killed in the craphole crash. Why would they stop at a two-plane conspiracy?

Didnt the news report say that they would not be able to recover any of the bodies because of where it was? If that was the case there would not have to be any bodies on the plane, especially if the footage is faked. Not trying to contest what you are saying, just covering all bases. :)

I'm just saying I would buy them having two planes from the get go then to have bad guys say "oh crap, the plane went somewhere we didn't want it to, now we need a cover up. hay I know lets get an exact copy of the plane and crash it in this trench where no one may ever find it."

Diablo, the best indication we have that the footage wasn't faked is Lapidus' reaction. If the footage was faked, the entire "that wasn't him" story line is sunk.

Daniel and Charlotte had strong reactions to the news stories, too. Not sure yet what that was all about.

Actually, I think I just read that there was going to be a continuity error in this episode that would upset people. Ausiello maybe? Anyway, this is probably it.

Nope. Ausiello's "continuity errors" weren't really continuity errors at all. He was pissed by Claire's lack of emotion and Jack's not following up up of the "what is your objective?" question. I just read his blog. He had me all worried but he just has some lame nitpicks. :rolleyes:

324 dead...
divided by 3
108
:jawdrop:

ahhhhhhhhhhhhh, the numbers!!!!!!!!!!!!

Where did they get the second plane from? Someone would notice that two 777s were gone. Looking through the public disclosures of accounting at Oceanic someone could easily tell that they purchased a plane from Boeing that they no longer have.

Hunts, the two-plane theory would suggest that Oceanic commissioned the second plane to fly the half of the passengers that could not fit on one plane. The airline was just covering itself by saying there was only one plane.

Cardie, both manifests weren't faked.
The media and official reports showed all 324 passengers.
That total would have been based upon the manifest.

They might retro the craphole plane manifest to be a fake, but it's a gaffe, a forgivable one, but still a gaffe.

Diablo, the count's a big deal because it confirms Lapidus' story that there were two planes, and further - it vindicates those of us who have been pushing a 2-plane theory since way back when!

I'm with Diablo, when did Lapidus tell a story of two planes?

I'm just saying I would buy them having two planes from the get go then to have bad guys say "oh crap, the plane went somewhere we didn't want it to, now we need a cover up. hay I know lets get an exact copy of the plane and crash it in this trench where no one may ever find it."

This makes perfect sense - you said it perfectly. Two planes take off within minutes of each from Sydney. One goes West, in the wrong direction and crashes in the Sunda Trench. The other goes... to the Island... somehow...

Sam, not Ron :biggrin:, finds the Sunda Trench plane

Diablo, the best indication we have that the footage wasn't faked is Lapidus' reaction. If the footage was faked, the entire "that wasn't him" story line is sunk.

Daniel and Charlotte had strong reactions to the news stories, too. Not sure yet what that was all about.

Well, if the footage was fake, it would follow that the "fake" pilot wouldn't be the guy Frank knows ;)

I do agree that (all) the reactions to the story, in the timeline of the Naomi and Abbadon meeting, were very intriguing...

What struck me as being the continuity error, and I can't believe that no one's mentioned this yet:

When Frank is watching the news about Oceanic 815, and they are talking about Seth Norris, they show his dead body underwater, in the seat. Clearly it's a pilot's uniform with the stripes on the sleeve. However, this is the same exact body that Kate and Sawyer found on-island when they found the metal case while they were swimming in season 1.

BTW, who ARE the dead people on the decoy plane? Did they kill people to put them on there? Perhaps the second half of the passengers?

What struck me as being the continuity error, and I can't believe that no one's mentioned this yet:

When Frank is watching the news about Oceanic 815, and they are talking about Seth Norris, they show his dead body underwater, in the seat. Clearly it's a pilot's uniform with the stripes on the sleeve. However, this is the same exact body that Kate and Sawyer found on-island when they found the metal case while they were swimming in season 1.

Thats a really wierd, so you're sure its the exact same body/person?

So there has been alot of talk about this polar bear and how it may have been cloned etc like the rabbit in the video for the other station - the orchid? - Anyway, im just gonna throw this out here, but is it possible if they had two planes, one was a duplicate clone O.o it would explain the body being exactly the same. Although I have no clue as to how or when it would be cloned, maybe when they was close to the island? I dunno, its a long shot / lame idea, but I thought I would put it out there, see what you guys think.

although the news woman said 324 passengers, since all the reports from oceanic say there were 324 people aboard, this figure has to include crew members, not just ticketed passengers.
and although i'm not sure of it's accuracy, someone on another thread a few weeks back researched and found a boeing 777 model (there were only like 3 of them in the world) that would hold 324 between passengers and crew.
just throwing that out there, although it does not necessarily mean there were not two planes.
100%
found the link:
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/777family/pf/pf_seating_charts.html
there are several 777 models that would carry 300 passengers, plus a couple dozen crew, with room to spare.

I need to take back what I said earlier. I went back to lost-media's gallery and reviewed the screen cap from season 1, and it's not the same person. However, in watching the episode for a second time, I did spot the continuity error. When Miles goes to exorcise the grandson from his grandmother's house, at first his pic by the stairwell is in one style of frame, and then when Miles is done and leaving, it's in a different style of frame. So eh, not as big a deal as we thought.

http://gallery.lost-media.com/displayimage.php?pid=23238&fullsize=1 WTCMB

http://gallery.lost-media.com/displayimage-1368-498.html CD

Not the same body.

http://gallery.lost-media.com/displayimage.php?pid=14086&fullsize=1 Plane looks pretty full in this shot
http://gallery.lost-media.com/displayimage-lastup-7-67.html

I have a different memory of flight 815, it seemed like a full flight to me.

Thanks Sam, but I had actually posted about my realizing they weren't the same before you posted.

I think it's just 324 passengers because that's 3 x 108, and add on unborn Aaron and you've got 325, which was the direction Michael was sent in, the angle of the Arrow on the Swan Mural, and the time shown at Ben's when they do the close up of the clock. It's a clue that that extra 1, Aaron, makes all the difference. :cool:

You can have as many bodies as you want if you are creating copies of people (ala that Hugh Jackman as a magician movie where he used electricity to xerox himself each night) But when you make copies maybe you only get the "meat" and you need to pick which clothing should go on it (like how Arnold and all those that followed were always naked after time travel) So the body are legit and the jewelry does not make it. That would mean the copies of our guys are in the real world because handcuff and DS rings and tats (??? hmmm) are on the island.

I think it's just 324 passengers because that's 3 x 108, and add on unborn Aaron and you've got 325, which was the direction Michael was sent in, the angle of the Arrow on the Swan Mural, and the time shown at Ben's when they do the close up of the clock. It's a clue that that extra 1, Aaron, makes all the difference. :cool:
Wow. That is a very cool set of observations.
I'm just saying I would buy them having two planes from the get go then to have bad guys say "oh crap, the plane went somewhere we didn't want it to, now we need a cover up. hay I know lets get an exact copy of the plane and crash it in this trench where no one may ever find it."
I agree with you. I am way more interested in a conspiracy that was planned from the beginning, not one that came about as an accidental coverup.
Nope. Ausiello's "continuity errors" weren't really continuity errors at all. He was pissed by Claire's lack of emotion and Jack's not following up up of the "what is your objective?" question. I just read his blog. He had me all worried but he just has some lame nitpicks. :rolleyes:
Jenni Lou! :hug: Good to see you! I have way reduced spoilers this last week, so I didn't catch Ausiello's follow up. Thanks.

... Seth Norris, they show his dead body underwater, in the seat. Clearly it's a pilot's uniform with the stripes on the sleeve. However, this is the same exact body that Kate and Sawyer found on-island when they found the metal case while they were swimming in season 1.

I imagine that is "Disney Dead Body Prop Model 001" and has probably been in numerous other shows.

I'm. . .not seeing a problem. In the first post, you essentially said the plane could not hold 324 people because that model of plane can only hold a maximum of 328, and in every shot I can remember from the show, the seats were filled (with the exception of Hurley's second seat), so. . .uh, huh? What's the problem here?

Perhaps I lost track of the issue, but I don't understand the logic of a deliberate decoy plane (with or without passengers on it) being placed in the Sunda Trench. The locale of the "discovered" crash site is in the opposite direction of the flight path to LAX. Why would anyone trying to fool the world plant a decoy in the Sunda Trench?

Ok, i would just like to try to clarify a few things... Do we know exactly and conclusively what sort of 777 flight 815 was. We would assume it was a 777 ER if it was flying to LAX but do we know for sure?
The reason I ask is that a 777 is more than capable of carrying over 400 people in Economy in a 2 class configuration. I am a flight attendant and fly on the 777 90% of the time, and believe me there is nothing worse than doing a Delhi flight with 400+ people in Economy on a 777-300 2 class!!
This plane can also do longer runs, though im doubtful it could fly Sydney-Los Angeles, but just saying that even with 324 or whatever number is being thrown around, IF it was a 2 class for whatever reason, then that would still leave a lot of empty seats and could easily be seen as being 'half full' even though its quite a lot more than half.
We know Shannon and Boone wanted to be upgraded into business class, but has there been any mention of a first class? In the 2 class it is Business and Economy only. Anyhoo, just a thought.

As for the plane found in the trench, I am of the belief that it is a real plane (ie, the footage is not faked) and that the people who discovered it, genuinely 'discovered' it, in that it was planted there for them to find. If the footage was faked, I dont think we would have seen the start where it seemed like from cameras searching the ocean floor, and then stumble upon the Aircraft. Why would we be shown this if it was faked footage, or if it was deliberatelly found by whomever planted it. It doesnt make sense because it wouldnt have happened.

AND, lastly, perhaps some supporters of the 2 plane theory could help me out. What I dont get is that, ok, I can see that maybe the passengers were loaded onto different planes unknown to them, but someone- or many people at the airport would have known something was up- If there were 2 flight 815s at Sydney airport both going to LA, gate agents, ticket agents, caterers, air traffic controllers, all would have known about it. You cant just land a plane and take off again at Australias busiest airport without anyone noticing. Especially if the plane was then to have crashed or dissappeared, anyone who had worked on that aircraft im sure would have realised that that was the plane they helped get away. I just dont see how 2 seperate groups of people could have gotten onto 2 different planes at Sydney Airport and not had anyone notice. Not to mention all the aviation geeks who would without a doubt have known what aircraft and registrations were moving that day- not to mention as someone else already has- Boeing.

AND, lastly, perhaps some supporters of the 2 plane theory could help me out. What I dont get is that, ok, I can see that maybe the passengers were loaded onto different planes unknown to them, but someone- or many people at the airport would have known something was up-

It's assuming a huge conspiracy with the ability to cover its tracks, and also knowing that Lost plays fast and loose with how things really happen in the world.

Cardie

Does Frank have a wedding ring on his left hand?

(Yes, I'm going somewhere with this...)

Diablo, the best indication we have that the footage wasn't faked is Lapidus' reaction. If the footage was faked, the entire "that wasn't him" story line is sunk.

Daniel and Charlotte had strong reactions to the news stories, too. Not sure yet what that was all about.

I'm not sure I understand this. Frank's reaction to the lack of a wedding ring on the pilot's finger would go towards supporting the idea that the 777 in the trench is indeed a fake. The 'it's not him' line only sinks if the trench 777 is the real 815.

Wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_777) refers to a maximum of 368 passengers in a 3-class confirguration, which would leave around 40 empty seats. That's quite a lot of empty seats, and could well explain the appearance of 815 as being half full

See Boeing's site (http://www.boeing.com/commercial/777family/pf/pf_seating_charts.html) as well

I'm afraid that I don't buy the two-plane theory, in terms of the passengers being split up. I think that whoever is behind all of this has the means to deposit a wrecked plane at the bottom of the ocean and plant a single body in the cockpit. That same controlling influence then simply controls the resulting media reports that confirm the full body count. They don't want the island, and the wreckage/survivors thereon, to be found. Cover up.

Either that or the wreckage from the island has been transported to the trench via the same method as the polar bear in Tunisia

M

DaveOnAnIsland >
Does Frank have a wedding ring on his left hand?


No, not in the FlashBack (http://gallery.lost-media.com/displayimage-1368-496.html), or on Craphole (http://gallery.lost-media.com/displayimage-1368-599.html).

No, not in the FlashBack (http://gallery.lost-media.com/displayimage-1368-496.html), or on Craphole (http://gallery.lost-media.com/displayimage-1368-599.html).

Following up on this idea, I thought I'd dig around to see whether the pilot of Flight 815 was shown to be wearing his inseparable ring or not. So here's the best screencap I could come up with that shows the Pilot's left hand - it was taken just as he was getting sucked out of the cockpit by Smokey:

Pilot (http://gallery.lost-media.com/displayimage.php?pid=14229&fullsize=1)

Unfortunately it doesn't show much. Perhaps someone else has another cap that shows his hand better.

Lucidity/Dave - And just to add... The actual pilot (Seth Norris) was wearing his ring. It can be seen twice in part of the Pilot - when he hands Jack the radio, and when the puts he radio down on the seat. I can't do caps from my DVD I'm afraid because it's Region 1 and won't play on my laptop (I can't change the region code again or it'll stick at Region 1!). The shots of the ring are small flashes, but it's definitely there

M

The number of passengers has always been somewhat in flux because of the decision to represent 815 with an L1011. And L1011 will hold up to 400 passengers.

The Oceanic Air website, the original, Disney owned one, show 352 seats on the seating chart. http://www.lostpedia.com/wiki/Image:Oceanic-air.com_seating_chart_02.png

Apparently a Boeing777 holds yet a different capacity.

I'm not convinced that these are meaningful differences, but rather a setpiece decision.

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. ;)

Michaud,
Here's a good screencap (http://bp0.blogger.com/_RrObyQ3XzcY/R6wN-sBE6iI/AAAAAAAATZ0/6qdTdVKcW6w/s1600-h/seths_ring.JPG) of the ring from Dark's.

That's the one. Thank you :)

I suspect I know where DaveOnIsland is going to go with this, but I'll leave that to him

M

That's the one. Thank you :)

I suspect I know where DaveOnIsland is going to go with this, but I'll leave that to him

M

I hope I'm not alone on this... (and thanks everyone for the image research...)

I think that Frank was so distracted by the fact that was not Seth on TV, that it didn't occur to him... that he is looking at the corpse of Frank Lapidus.

In a parallel time, Frank DID fly 815, and in that timeline, he turned around too, struck the magnetic anomaly (during Demond's system failure) along with Seth's 815.

What we are seeing, I think, is the wreck of an 815 from a parallel timeline.

(funny thing.. I am about to replay the search scene, and I just looked at my clock. The time is 8:15)

I hope I'm not alone on this... (and thanks everyone for the image research...)

I think that Frank was so distracted by the fact that was not Seth on TV, that it didn't occur to him... that he is looking at the corpse of Frank Lapidus.

In a parallel time, Frank DID fly 815, and in that timeline, he turned around too, struck the magnetic anomaly (during Demond's system failure) along with Seth's 815.

What we are seeing, I think, is the wreck of an 815 from a parallel timeline.

(funny thing.. I am about to replay the search scene, and I just looked at my clock. The time is 8:15)

Dave, I like it.

When you look at the wreckage on the bottom of the Indian Ocean, it does not look like a Boeing 777. The reason I say this is because it has an engine #3 at the base of the vertical stabilizer (tail); a 777 does not. Possibly I am wrong, as I am merely remembering from the episode (4.02), but I do believe the one shown on the ocean floor has the 3rd engine, thus making it either a DC-10 or MD-11.

You know how you know the theory about it being 2 planes from the beginning is debunked? Simple. Watch the extra disc from season one where they talk about all the work that went into the pilot show. They state in there a billion times they had no idea what direction the show was going to go. In fact, they didn't even have some of the scripts done until moments before they shot scenes for the pilot episode. They also state that they used a DC10 I believe because it was what they could get a hold of for a reasonable $$. This is a case of REAL world logistics conflicting with all the ***Mod edited*** who think the show is real. They mention problems with the configurations of the planes being different (777 vs DC10) but they did not feel they were a huge deal, it was a pilot episode. They didn't know when shooting the very first episode that 4 years later they'd have a second plane involved. They didn't know that there would even be a second episode, much less 4 seasons worth. They have done an excellent job with the REAL world logistics, but as with anything, it's not always perfect.

(funny thing.. I am about to replay the search scene, and I just looked at my clock. The time is 8:15)

Ahh, your theory has been blessed by The Numbers. ;)

http://gallery.lost-media.com/displayimage.php?pid=107226&fullsize=1

I think Frank did a little experiment to show us that that's not how 815 would have rested at the bottom of the ocean.

I'm watching again to see if there is a #3 engine.

It was a L-1011 that was used.

http://l1011.homestead.com/lst783.html

Already posted this, but it's driving me crazy...

I don't understand the logic of a deliberate decoy/fake plane (with or without passengers on it) being placed in the Sunda Trench. The locale of the "discovered" crash site is in the opposite direction of the flight path to LAX. Why would anyone trying to fool the world plant a decoy in the Sunda Trench? This is not logical to me.

The only thing that makes sense to me is the alternate reality/time shift theory on 2 planes.

Where did they get the second plane from? Someone would notice that two 777s were gone. Looking through the public disclosures of accounting at Oceanic someone could easily tell that they purchased a plane from Boeing that they no longer have.

Stop that:)

Your thinking like the FAA, not a Lost writer

Rule one is to think about pen to paper. Never think Jack would do this or that, the airline would be able to account for another plane, or smoke doesnt form into a monster.
Think of the flow of the writers masterplan and how he chooses to present it to the audience.

I hope I'm not alone on this... (and thanks everyone for the image research...)

I think that Frank was so distracted by the fact that was not Seth on TV, that it didn't occur to him... that he is looking at the corpse of Frank Lapidus.

In a parallel time, Frank DID fly 815, and in that timeline, he turned around too, struck the magnetic anomaly (during Demond's system failure) along with Seth's 815.

What we are seeing, I think, is the wreck of an 815 from a parallel timeline.

(funny thing.. I am about to replay the search scene, and I just looked at my clock. The time is 8:15)

You're not alone on this Dave. I had an inkling that this is where you'd be going with your earlier question, and I can absolutely see the logic (well, Lost 'logic' of course! :))

Somebody has posted elsewhere (I'm struggling to find the thread, but I make no allusions that this is my original theory) that when Desmond turned the failsafe key, he created a parallel timeline. The freighties' flashbacks all occured at the time that the 777 was found on the ocean floor. The dating of the discovery of '815' in the trench is about the same time as when Desmond turned the key (again, I've seen the dates discussed in other threads). Did he therefore create a timeline in which Frank was flying the plane? You never see the dead pilot's face. It's an utterly compelling thought.

When you look at the wreckage on the bottom of the Indian Ocean, it does not look like a Boeing 777. The reason I say this is because it has an engine #3 at the base of the vertical stabilizer (tail); a 777 does not. Possibly I am wrong, as I am merely remembering from the episode (4.02), but I do believe the one shown on the ocean floor has the 3rd engine, thus making it either a DC-10 or MD-11.

I've just watched the intro sequence again, and I can't see an engine on that tail section. There seems to be a hole at the tip of the tail, but I would put that down to damage caused by the plane hitting the water (if that's what it did) and then hitting the ocean floor. Sam's right, and it's a great link - the on island wrekage used by the crew was indeed from a plane with a tail-end engine. It doesn't make this theory flawed though.

[/URL]http://gallery.lost-media.com/displayimage.php?pid=14086&fullsize=1 (http://gallery.lost-media.com/displayimage.php?pid=23238&fullsize=1) Plane looks pretty full in this shot
[URL]http://gallery.lost-media.com/displayimage-lastup-7-67.html
I have a different memory of flight 815, it seemed like a full flight to me.

Those caps aren't representative, altho Claire's cap certainly shows many empty seats. Charlie's running scene (http://gallery.lost-media.com/displayimage-18-20.html) best shows them since he's running through all 3 classes, but it's not as obvious in the caps as it is in the dvd.

There is a good shot of the pilots face when Frank is watching the coverage. His lips are all bloated and you wouldn't recognize anyone's face from the way it looked. I'll see if there's a cap.

http://gallery.lost-media.com/displayimage.php?pid=107233&fullsize=1 bad cap but watch again and the face is pretty clear.

Thanks, Sam. I think you're right - there's no way the writers are goin to let us decide for certain whether that is Seth Norris or somebody else

lostmio - Well the cap of Claire shows a lot of people behind her waiting to sit down.

Charlie (http://gallery.lost-media.com/displayimage-18-20.html)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZK01oUQX2Yo

If you watch the beginning of this, the plane seems pretty full.

The scene with Claire, I counted how many people were in the scene and how many seats I could see, the overall impression was that the flight was almost full.