In Jack's testimony during Kate's trial, he says Flight 815 crashed in the South Pacific. This is the presumed Oceanic 6 cover-story, which was widely-known and accepted as fact (even though we know it to be a lie).

However, in Confirmed Dead, we saw news reports which stated without equivocation that Flight 815 had been found in the Sunda Trench in the Indian Ocean. This story was also presumably widely-known and accepted as fact (even though we know it to be a lie, as well).

The Indian Ocean and the South Pacific are separated by thousands of miles.

Both of those stories cannot be accepted as truthful in the world at large. They contradict each other. What we have here is a seeming paradox.

How is this possible? Why did no one in the courtroom question Jack, or attempt to correct him when he said the plane had crashed in the South Pacific? "Surely, you meant to say the Indian Ocean, Mr. Shepherd..."

Something really fishy is going on. Which came first? The Sunda Trench story or the South Pacific story?

Clearly, the people in Kate's FF this week have never seen the news footage of Flight 815 at the bottom of the Sunda Trench in the Indian Ocean -- or else they would have questioned Jack's story. How could they not have seen it?

Is it possible that the world hasn't seen the Sunda Trench footage because ... it never aired?

This is a tricky paradox because TPTB refuse to give us actual dates so that we can understand the time issues in context. But what if the Freighter Four "flashbacks" from Confirmed Dead actually take place AFTER Kate's "flash-forward" in Eggtown? Is it then possible to explain the paradox?

Imagine that the Freighties are from, say 2010 (this is an arbitrary date). They see the Sunda Trench footage in 2010, then are recruited for a top-secret mission to the Island. They cross the barrier into the Island (through space-time) and (presumably) rescue 6 of the Losties. But, in leaving the Island, the Oceanic 6 don't cross through the same space-time barrier that brought the Freighties to the Island and, as a result, the Oceanic 6 don't go back to 2010 where the whole world already thinks the plane crashed in the Sunda Trench. They go back to say, 2005, right where Island-time tells them they're supposed to be ... about 3 months after the crash ... and right where the plane actually did crash ... in the South Pacific.

In 2005, the Big Bad Meanies in control of everything now have a NEW cover story for Flight 815 and so, the Big Bad Meanies (5 years later in 2010) have no reason to create the Sunda Trench cover story.

In this case, the rescue of the Oceanic 6 (in 2005) causes the future (2010) to be altered so that there is no need for a Sunda Trench cover story.

I've never liked the parallel (or alternate) realities theories, and I know that Damon and Carlton have said that they want to avoid paradoxes in the story, but I just can't figure out another scenario which explains how the Sunda Trench story and the South Pacific story can both be presented to the SAME world at large and accepted as factual.

Anyone else got some ideas?

Perhaps -- BIG perhaps -- the official story is that the O6 fell out of the plane, onto a South Pacific island, before the wreckage crashed in the Indian Ocean.

No, wait. That's dumb. Never mind.

Perhaps -- BIG perhaps -- the official story is that the O6 fell out of the plane, onto a South Pacific island, before the wreckage crashed in the Indian Ocean.

No, wait. That's dumb. Never mind.

LOL but it makes for a hysterical visual image.

Perhaps -- BIG perhaps -- the official story is that the O6 fell out of the plane, onto a South Pacific island, before the wreckage crashed in the Indian Ocean.

No, wait. That's dumb. Never mind.

lmao, roflmao
nice.

This is the part of the episode that intrigues me the most. The 815 recovery footage was clearly shown on TV, and every indication was that it was before the Freighties were recruited. Yet Jack clearly said they crashed on an island in the South Pacific.

Remember the pilot of the Sunda Trench 815 was said to be Greg Grundberg, who we know was the pilot of our 815. Thus, these are the same Flight 815.

The two events cannot both have happened, so why did the court accept Jack's statement?

I think it's a plausible theory.

It's absolutely a plausible theory.
If the freighties are from a few years in the future, that could explain their high-tech phones ;) It would also explain why Daniel was crying when he saw the footage on T.V because in a sense, he's remembering future events that have already occured on the island in the past. Another paradox???
Great post LOTF...... very insightful....keep it coming
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I also think that the freighties had flash forwards in "Confirmed Dead". It makes sense.......

Another possibility, which doesn't require time travel - it's somehow discovered that the wreckage found in the trench is not in fact 815. Maybe Frank's phone call about the pilot started an investigation.

Someone on the CD discussion theorized that the footage Lapidus saw of the Sunda Trench was broadcast only to his t.v. Supposedly to motivate him to make the call and engage in the freighties' expedition. Maybe the other freighties were similarly fed false media stories about the Sunda Trench discovery and it wasn't a story that was ever released to the general public? Kind of far-fetched, I know, but could be another explanation for the paradox.

Someone on the CD discussion theorized that the footage Lapidus saw of the Sunda Trench was broadcast only to his t.v. Supposedly to motivate him to make the call and engage in the freighties' expedition.

No theory is ever too far-fetched for Lost, as we all know!

However, I think the freighter-four-false-footage (hee, hee) theory doesn't hold up too well. If the Bad Guys wanted them, all they had to do was privately recruit them (a la Mittelos and Juliette), and then show them the Sunda Trench footage as "classified proof." Why go to through the elaborate ruse of making them believe the whole world knows about the Sunda Trench as well? It seems inefficient. Wouldn't they have talked about it with their friends? I think Charlotte's co-worker saw the newspaper as well, and asked her, "How many times do you have to read that story before you believe it?"

If the false-footage theory is right, though, it does explain the "two crash-site paradox" without the introduction of space-time causality loops. So, who knows? Maybe next week will shed some light on it.

One thing is for sure. There were two key insights into Eggtown: Kate ending up with Aaron (which a lot of folks are questioning) and the Sunda Trench/South Pacific paradox (which fewer people are questioning).

PS - What's the CD discussion? Is it in the spoilers? I don't read them.

LOTF~ Could you give me an example or something to explain this a little bettter? I'm LOVING this theory,but I'm getting tripped up on a few things like the Sunda Trench cover story vs. South Pacific story.
It takes me a while, but once I get....I get it :)

I also think that the freighties had flash forwards in "Confirmed Dead". It makes sense.......

Flashback. Flash-forward. I guess it's all a matter of perspective. If they're remembering events which caused them to come to the Island, but from the pov of the Losties, they're actually from the future, then who's to say it's not a flash-forward?

"Only fools are ruled by time and space."

Take Daniel Faraday. He's sitting in front of his tv in say, 2010 (arbitrary date), clearly in the midst of some kind of emotional breakdown which requires a "caretaker." And then, we find him on the Island in much better shape. What happened to bring him around so quickly?

Or perhaps, was it his experience on the Island which LED to his breakdown, but he doesn't remember for some reason? Now we're in a causality loop, where we're seeing the EFFECT of his breakdown BEFORE the experiences which CAUSED the breakdown.

There might be a clue to this in the card-game he and Charlotte were playing. What if Daniel is losing his memory for some reason, early-onset Alzheimers or some other kind of brain disease? By the time we see him in 2010 in front of the tv, his disease has progressed to the point where he cannot remember the events which took place on the Island, but he still FEELS the emotional impact of them?

I don't adhere to the "multiple possible futures" theory, so my best guess at this point is that we're looking at Daniel's 2010 flashback of the Sunda Trench discovery in Confirmed Dead, but that as a direct result of his and others' actions on the Island (the Oceanic 6 rescue which takes them back to 2005), Daniel is ensuring that his 2010 flashback will never occur. Hah!

It's not DIFFERENT timeline, it's an ALTERED timeline. Everything that occured in the original 2010 timeline (before the Oceanic 6 rescue in 2005) is changed, including the experiences of the Freighter Four in Confirmed Dead (in 2010). It's a ripple-effect which surges forwards, subtly altering the timeline so that the staged Sunda Trench site is never made public. And the original Daniel (in 2010) who saw the footage and went to the Island, never goes, because he already did -- and changed the course of the future ... so that the new Daniel (in 2010) never has to.

Of course, now we have the problem of TWO Daniels. The one who went to the Island (in the original timeline) and the one who didn't (in the altered timeline). This would argue for Daniel never making it off the Island ... or any of the Freighter Four, for that matter. If they're from a future where the Oceanic 6 haven't yet been rescued and plopped back into 2005, then they can never go back to the real world ... or else they'd run into the ALTERED versions of themselves, who had no cause to go to the Island.

My brain feels like a snake swallowing it's own tail. I need to lie down for awhile until it passes. :)

Wow. Very interesting...swallowing your own tail...reminds me of that Ororobus (sp) pin Mrs. hawkings was wearing!

Interesting theory LOTF, and right on the money if you ask me......

LOTF~ Could you give me an example or something to explain this a little bettter? I'm LOVING this theory,but I'm getting tripped up on a few things like the Sunda Trench cover story vs. South Pacific story.
It takes me a while, but once I get....I get it :)

The best example I can think of is The Terminator (one of my favorite movies). Skynet sends a terminator back in time to kill the woman who gave birth to John Connor, the leader of the human resistance in the future which has crippled SkyNet. It's the grandfather paradox. If they can kill her before she gives birth, then John Connor will never exist, thereby ensuring that Skynet will prevail in the future.

However, as a DIRECT RESULT of SkyNet sending a terminator back in time, John Connor sends Kyle Reese back in time to protect Sarah Connor ... thereby ensuring his own birth. Because (as we all know by now) Kyle Reese is actually John Connor's father.

So, if Skynet hadn't sent a terminator back to kill Sarah Connor, then John Connor would have had no reason to send Kyle Reese back to protect her ... and he never would have been born.

SkyNet was trying to prevent John Connor's birth from occuring, but the actions it took led DIRECTLY to the cause of John Connor's birth.

In this case, the effect (John Connor's existence) occured before the cause (sending Kyle Reese back in time to impregnant Sarah Connor).

What SkyNet should have done (had it known) is simply kill KYLE REESE before he went back in time. And John Connor would have, at that moment, ceased to exist and the timeline would have been altered to SkyNet's benefit. But SkyNet didn't know who the father was. It was a closely-guarded secret known only to Sarah Connor and John Connor themselves.

Even more ironic (and paradoxical), the terminator's hand is the only thing that survived in the past after Sarah Connor destroyed it. This hand was found by a scientist for Cyberdyne Labs ... and the technology within the hand itself led Cyberdyne to INVENT SkyNet, thereby setting in motion the same chain of events which would lead to the terminator being sent back in time to kill Sarah Connor, with Kyle Reese following to protect her and father her child, John Connor. Talk about a causality loop!

I don't know if this helps explain what I think is going on with the Freighter Four and the Sunda Trench/South Pacific paradox, but I believe there are parallels to be drawn from it.

In The Terminator, we know the dates. It's 2029 when the terminator goes back to 1984 to kill Sarah Connor. John Connor sends Kyle Reese to protect her. We know that Kyle Reese was born after the war (1997) ... so he doesn't have to worry about running into a younger version of himself. But he would certainly have cause to worry about running into his parents and screwing things up (a la Back to the Future). All those car chases ... who knows, he could have accidentally hit his young mother or something. Anyway...

In the case of the Freighter Four, I think they are from a very near future before they enter the Island, say 2010. If this is the case, and the timeline they came from is altered because of the Oceanic 6's discovery in 2005, then Daniel, Charlotte, Miles and Frank will never be able to leave the Island and return to their rightful timeline ... because their timeline no longer exists. They will have to remain on the Island or run the risk of encountering THEMSELVES in the new timeline.

It works the same way with the Sunda Trench/South Pacific paradox. If it's 2010 when the Sunda Trench site is discovered, but the Oceanic 6 are discovered in 2005, then the events leading up to the staging of the Sunda Trench site HAVE NOT YET occurred. Indeed, there is no reason now for the Sunda Trench site to be staged. The Bad Guys (in 2005) have a different cover story involving flight 815 -- the Oceanic 6.

But the paradox comes into play when you imagine that it is the 2010 Sunda Trench footage which CAUSED the chain of events. It led the Freighter Four to the Island, which led to the rescue of the Oceanic 6, and subsequent return to their proper timeline of 2005 . The EFFECT (discovery of the Oceanic 6 in 2005) occurs before the CAUSE of their discovery (the 2010 Sunda Trench footage).

So, the title of this week's episode, Eggtown, is, I think, a nod to the chicken and the egg paradox. Which came first? The Sunda Trench site or the South Pacific site?

The answer is ... it depends. From the point of view of the Freighter Four, the Sunda Trench site came first. From the point of view of the Oceanic 6, the South Pacific site is the only site. They will be told nothing of the Sunda Trench site by their rescuers and they will never know that it occurred in their future.

From the audience's point of view (that's us chickens out here), both events occurred. Narratively, the Sunda Trench site was first introduced into the story, then the South Pacific site. But if we understand that the Sunda Trench site was "discovered" in 2010, and the Oceanic 6 return to 2005, then we know that the Sunda Trench site will never be "discovered" in the altered timeline.

Whew ...

LOTF: I love your theory. Problem is that it does fall under the "alternate" category that TPTB have denied.

That was awesome. I REALLY feel like watching the Terminator again. This new Terminator show on Fox is going to try and stretch the whole paradox you explain even further. But I don't think James Cameron is involved.

also, while the time line of the 2nd lost ARG was unclear, it certainly seemed like not much time had past since the crash when Sam went hunting for Sonya, so even with the time shift that appears to happen on the island, it would seem that Oceanic 815 was found in some reality in the Sunda trench sometime in late 2004....

LOTF: I love your theory. Problem is that it does fall under the "alternate" category that TPTB have denied.

LOTF theory doesn't involve an alternate timeline. In his theory there is only one timeline like in Terminator.
Plus, in FBYE Desmond did go back in time. TPTB confirmed it.

LOTF: I love your theory. Problem is that it does fall under the "alternate" category that TPTB have denied.

Thanks! I don't think I'm theorizing about an alternate timeline, though. The one timeline is simply amended. If I were to go back in time and meet myself as a teenager, there would be two of me (one older, one younger) occupying the same space and time, but it would still be the same timeline. No second (or alternate) timeline is created by the actions of the Freighter Four or the rescue of the Oceanic 6. The original timeline is just revised a bit so that the Sunda Trench site is never made public.

it would seem that Oceanic 815 was found in some reality in the Sunda trench sometime in late 2004....

I didn't play the ARG game, but I'm still not sure I'm with you on that. TPTB have quite conspicuously refused to give us any dates for reference throughout the entire course of this series. They have given us hints, though. My theory about the Freighter Four coming from the future is based partly on what the newscaster said in Confirmed Dead while the footage of the Sunda Trench aired. I don't remember it exactly, but she said something like, "Flight 815, which was lost on September 22, 2004 ..."

Something about the way she worded that didn't sit right with me. Why, if it's only been a few months since 815 went missing, did she have to remind the public of the year? If it were say, December 2004, when the Sunda Trench footage aired, then a more appropriate wording would have been, "Flight 815, which was lost last September..." or, "Flight 815, which was lost 3 months ago..." You get what I'm saying?

The public wouldn't have already forgotten an event that had only just occured three months previously. It would still be fresh in their minds. It just seems like more time has passed in those flashbacks than we might first assume.

Anyways, next week one of the characters will probably have a flash-forward which completely obliterates my theory, watching some news report about how the Sunda Trench site has been revealed to be a hoax or something like that. :biggrin: I guess we'll just have to wait and see. However it turns out, it's sure to keep me watching!

PS - There are other time-issues that have been recently introduced that got me thinking along these lines. The Dharma polar bear in the desert, buried under several feet of sediment. Also, the Orchid Video, which very explicitly hints that Dharma had been experimenting with time travel.

also, while the time line of the 2nd lost ARG was unclear, it certainly seemed like not much time had past since the crash when Sam went hunting for Sonya, so even with the time shift that appears to happen on the island, it would seem that Oceanic 815 was found in some reality in the Sunda trench sometime in late 2004....

Which, by the way, would have been highly disturbed by the December 26, 2004 quake and tsunami. Clearly THAT happened in real life after Lost had been initially planned out, but I'm wondering if we'll ever hear anything about that in the story.

Is it possible that the world hasn't seen the Sunda Trench footage because ... it never aired?



This is not the sort of theory I usually back, but: Maybe the Sunda Trench footage was shot specifically for the fantastic/freighter four, to recruit them? That doesn't seem possible either, given Charlotte's having seen the news in all those different languages. Hmmm.


Can we move this thread to the Speculation section?

I'm a spacetime-theory type, and I think you're on the right track, LOTF. Certainly this is a KEY point. As dumb as Us Americans can be about geography, there's no way this is a writing error.

Which, by the way, would have been highly disturbed by the December 26, 2004 quake and tsunami. Clearly THAT happened in real life after Lost had been initially planned out, but I'm wondering if we'll ever hear anything about that in the story.

That's what I'd like to know baylady! Just posted as much in another thread about the Sundra Trench. I'd love to know where they are going with all this?!!

I love your theory LOTF, although it makes my brain hurt! :biggrin: Way back in S1 I was always a big fan of the crash being in the future so that by the end of the show it would be the same time as real life, but of course this was blown away once they confirmed the crash did happen in 2004! I can't wait for next weeks episode now!

Has anyone thought of this... Digital TV is officially on in 2009. The Bahamas only have one station, which is governement owned. The rest of the stations are coming from the Miami/ Ft. Lauderdale Area.. So when the pilot sees this on his non digital tv, we can assume that it was broadcast before 2009.

This is not a possible theory...only because TPTB confirmed that they are anti-paradox, and none of the "time" issues in the show will ever create a paradox..which is what you are describing

The best example I can think of is The Terminator (one of my favorite movies). Skynet sends a terminator back in time to kill the woman who gave birth to John Connor, the leader of the human resistance in the future which has crippled SkyNet. It's the grandfather paradox. If they can kill her before she gives birth, then John Connor will never exist, thereby ensuring that Skynet will prevail in the future.

Hahahaha...Terminator..very nice. ;)

Has anyone thought of this... Digital TV is officially on in 2009. The Bahamas only have one station, which is governement owned. The rest of the stations are coming from the Miami/ Ft. Lauderdale Area.. So when the pilot sees this on his non digital tv, we can assume that it was broadcast before 2009.

That's brillant!!! I totally forgot about the Bahamas having one station!! Your exactly right and that needs to be considered...good catch:)
100%
Which, by the way, would have been highly disturbed by the December 26, 2004 quake and tsunami. Clearly THAT happened in real life after Lost had been initially planned out, but I'm wondering if we'll ever hear anything about that in the story.

I said the exact same thing to my sister on the phone the other night!!! I'm curious to see how that real-life event is played out in the show....

I've cut 'n pasted a post of mine from another thread here, since its the same topic:

To the OP: I think the two stories are evidence not only of a cover-up (fake plane), but also the uncovering of that cover-up...

Jack's testimony came as no shock to the jury who, in the past, were treated to the very same underwater footage we were: in the Sunda Trench off Bali. For them to know this, and yet not bat an eyelash at Jack's telling says to me that this discrepancy is old news. At some point after the broadcast of the initial discovery, It became common knowledge that these survivors not only crashed and miraculously survived on an island, but that they were also the unwitting participants of some corporate conspiracy, the sort of conspiracy that would plant fake wreckage in order to stop a further search (for the island, too much public scrutiny).

That is of course unless there were two actual flight 815s that crashed, which I'm not so sure about.

This is not a possible theory...only because TPTB confirmed that they are anti-paradox, and none of the "time" issues in the show will ever create a paradox..which is what you are describing

I know, I know. No paradoxes. I've read the interviews, too. But they also said there would be no time travel in the show -- and then we all saw Flashes Before Your Eyes. And then TPTB confirmed that Desmond did, indeed, travel back through time. They avoided the twin-paradox in that instance by having Desmond jump into his own past-body. But where did his Island body go during that time? It should have been destroyed in the Swan Hatch implosion, but it wasn't. I believe the magical properties of the Island (which I'm betting exists outside of linear time) is what allows them (and will allow them in the future) to avoid such traditional paradoxes as travelling to the past and meeting your younger self.

But we still have the issue of the two-crash-site paradox.

If the two-crash-site conundrum is not a paradox, then TPTB will have to reveal in a future episode that the Sunda Trench site was a hoax, or a mistake, or a second plane, or some other fairly mundane explanation. Because what they've revealed to us so far -- two crash sites for the same Flight 815 with both sites accepted as truth by the world at large -- is absolutely a paradox. They cannot both be accepted as true by the world and yet, by all accounts, they both have been accepted as true by the world.

I don't think we are looking at a literal translation by TPTB of the paradoxes that exist in the The Terminator films. But until we get more info, I'm still betting that they were inspired by them.
100%
To the OP: I think the two stories are evidence not only of a cover-up (fake plane), but also the uncovering of that cover-up...

To avoid the paradox, this could very well be the explanation that we are presented with. The Oceanic 6 escape the Island ... despite the efforts of the group that planted the fake Sunda Trench site ... and then they had to scramble to come up with a new explanation for the discovery of the Oceanic 6 thousands of miles and an entire ocean away.

"The Sunda Trench site was a hoax," they'll say. "Fake footage and fancy CGI." And Oceanic Airways will be deeply embarrassed by the hoax and make a public apology, etc.

It's a distinct possibility. But I'm hoping deep down that this isn't the explanation. It would be akin to the Kate let-down from last season's cliff-hanger.

Ohmigod! How did she get off the Island and NOT go to prison?!?

Oh ... she went to trial and they just ... let her go.

Yawn.

How 'bout this: The writers have an end point in mind. We've all considered this and accept it. But the ending is one of the theories figured out in the premier, but denied. The writers, amazed by the cunning ability of their viewers embark upon layers of contradiction. Through the contradiction the writers have written themselves into so many philosophical corners that to wrap the series they cannot resolve details previously written in the layers of contradiction.

Don't mean to demean LOTF theory. It is good. I'm just a bit frustrated.

So, the title of this week's episode, Eggtown, is, I think, a nod to the chicken and the egg paradox. Which came first? The Sunda Trench site or the South Pacific site?

And what was that John Locke said about killing the chicken?

There is already another thread about this same thing, why don't the mods merge them?

" Crashed on an Island in the South Pacific.. (http://www.thefuselage.com/Threaded/showthread.php?t=89543) "